Ethiopia Food Security Outlook: Drought and conflict expected to drive Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in the north, October 2026 - May 2027

Country: Ethiopia Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Historic kiremt rainfall deficits driving significant crop production loss and conflict-related market constraints are expected to drive large food consumption deficits, which will likely cause high levels of malnutrition and increased mortality, or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, in some areas of Tigray, Amhara, and Afar in early 2027. Poor households are expected to have little to no 2026 meher harvest remaining and be atypically market-dependent during the October-December harvest